Tottenham 1-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Fulham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tottenham stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tottenham 1.20 PPG, Fulham 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tottenham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fulham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Tottenham, 2 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fulham in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 58% and Fulham 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | Fulham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.50 xG and Fulham 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.826 / defence 1.073 | Fulham attack 0.829 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.227. Data: 50 Tottenham games / 50 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 28%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 3.57. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 60% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Tottenham 1.50 / Fulham 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.826 / def 1.073 | Fulham attack 0.829 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fulham xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Fulham kick off?
Tottenham vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Fulham?
Tottenham 1 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Tottenham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Fulham part of?
Tottenham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 47% chance of winning, Fulham a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Tottenham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Fulham?
Record (6 meetings): Tottenham 3W | Draws 1 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Tottenham and Fulham in?
Tottenham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tottenham's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.88
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.60
1.09
Fulham xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.09 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tottenham come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 8D 26L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.36 PPG from 50 outings (19W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.12 PPG, Fulham on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tottenham's home form reads 7W 5D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.34 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Fulham in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 16W 8D 26L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Fulham have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.04 PPG; Fulham away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tottenham
1
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 3, Fulham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tottenham at 68%, Fulham at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Tottenham and 52% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Tottenham's games and 68% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Tottenham's matches and 52% of Fulham's.
Do Tottenham and Fulham tend to score early?
Tottenham have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.50 xG and Fulham 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.83 / defence 1.07 against Fulham attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 28%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.12 PPG, Fulham 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.