Tottenham 1-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tottenham and Everton meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Tottenham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tottenham have posted 0W 4D 6L at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season.
Everton's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tottenham have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Everton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Tottenham have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Everton managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Tottenham winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Tottenham and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Tottenham — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Everton — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 61% versus Everton 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | Everton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.25 xG and Everton 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.860 / defence 1.350 | Everton attack 1.069 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.224. Data: 75 Tottenham games / 75 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 26% | Draw 26% | Everton 48%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Everton 2.08. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 90% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 26% | Draw 26% | Everton 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Tottenham 1.25 / Everton 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.860 / def 1.350 | Everton attack 1.069 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Everton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Everton xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Everton kick off?
Tottenham vs Everton kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Everton?
Tottenham 1 - 0 Everton.
Where is Tottenham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Everton part of?
Tottenham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 26% chance of winning, Everton a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tottenham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Everton?
Record (9 meetings): Tottenham 5W | Draws 3 | Everton 1W.
What form are Tottenham and Everton in?
Tottenham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Tottenham's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Everton's attack (1.07x) against Tottenham's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
26%
3.86
26%
3.88
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.02
1.77
Everton xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
4%
22.57
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.77 for Everton, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tottenham come into this having played 75 games, going 20W 16D 39L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.29 PPG from 75 outings (24W 25D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.01 PPG for Tottenham against 1.29 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Tottenham's home form reads 8W 9D 20L across 37 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.35 points per game from 37 outings (13W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tottenham are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.19 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Everton in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 20W 16D 39L in their last 75 games (1.01 PPG), while Everton have gone 24W 25D 26L in their last 75 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Everton away?
Everton's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 0.89 PPG; Everton away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Tottenham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tottenham won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tottenham have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tottenham
3
Draws
1
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 6, Everton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Tottenham 1-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Everton?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Everton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 73%, Everton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Tottenham) and 32% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Tottenham's games and 43% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Tottenham's recent games and 32% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tottenham and Everton tend to score early?
Tottenham have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Everton in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tottenham defy the odds to beat Everton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Everton 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.25 xG and Everton 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Everton attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 26% | Draw 26% | Everton 48%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Tottenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Everton 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.01 PPG, Everton 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.