Sunderland 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sunderland at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sunderland welcome Everton to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Sunderland have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium of Light this season.
Everton — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Everton trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 47% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sunderland 40% | Everton 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.51 xG and Everton 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.030 / defence 0.936 | Everton attack 0.896 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.176. Data: 9 Sunderland games / 47 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 26% | Everton 25%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Everton 4.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 26% | Everton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Sunderland 1.51 / Everton 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.030 / def 0.936 | Everton attack 0.896 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Everton xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Everton kick off?
Sunderland vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Everton?
Sunderland 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Sunderland vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Everton part of?
Sunderland vs Everton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 49% chance of winning, Everton a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sunderland and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Everton in?
Sunderland (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.03x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.86
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.50
0.99
Everton xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.99 for Everton, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland's recent record stands at 20W 15D 12L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 16L across 47 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.60 PPG, Everton on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 11W 8D 4L from 23 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.09 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Everton in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 20W 15D 12L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 17D 16L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Everton away?
Sunderland's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.78 PPG; Everton away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Everton in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
0
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Everton?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Everton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Everton 1-3 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Everton?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Everton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 52%, Everton 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Sunderland and 30% for Everton.
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Everton in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sunderland's recent matches and 39% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sunderland's recent games and 30% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Everton tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Everton in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland and Everton finished level at 1-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.51 xG and Everton 0.99 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Everton attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 49% | Draw 26% | Everton 25%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 40%, Everton 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.60 PPG, Everton 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.