Sheffield Utd 3-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Utd vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sheffield Utd and Fulham meet at Bramall Lane in Premier League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sheffield Utd's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters, Sheffield Utd have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Fulham (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Fulham arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sheffield Utd edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Sheffield Utd 1–3 Fulham — a Fulham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sheffield Utd half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 46% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 51% | Fulham 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.11 xG and Fulham 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.589 / defence 1.752 | Fulham attack 0.817 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.563. Sheffield Utd's attack rating of 0.589 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Sheffield Utd's defence rating of 1.752 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fulham's projected output up. Data: built from Sheffield Utd's last 28 games and Fulham's last 67.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 17% | Draw 21% | Fulham 62%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 5.82 | Draw 4.86 | Fulham 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.11 / 2.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Utd's last 10 home games and Fulham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sheffield Utd 50% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 17% | Draw 21% | Fulham 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sheffield Utd 1.11 / Fulham 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.589 / def 1.752 | Fulham attack 0.817 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.563 • Poisson stance: Fulham (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Fulham xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Fulham kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Fulham?
Sheffield Utd 3 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Fulham part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 17% chance of winning, Fulham a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sheffield Utd vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sheffield Utd's attack rating (0.59) and Fulham's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.82x) against Sheffield Utd's defence (1.75x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Utd's last 28 games and Fulham's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
17%
5.82
21%
4.86
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
3.35
2.24
Fulham xG
5.82
17%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
11%
9.36
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
2%
54.49
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 2.24 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Sheffield Utd have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 27W 10D 30L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 26W 12D 29L from 67 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Sheffield Utd against 1.34 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sheffield Utd have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 33 home games (14W 5D 14L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 9W 6D 18L from their last 33 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.46 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Sheffield Utd (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Utd and Fulham in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 27W 10D 30L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 12D 29L in their last 67 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Fulham away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.42 PPG; Fulham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Utd won Sheffield Utd 4-0 Fulham on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sheffield Utd
1
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Fulham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have won 2, Fulham have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Sheffield Utd 3-3 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Fulham?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 48%, Fulham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sheffield Utd and 61% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd have failed to score in 27% of games; Fulham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Utd and Fulham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 54% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sheffield Utd and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 61% of Fulham's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 67% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Utd and Fulham share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 30, as Sheffield Utd and Fulham drew 3-3 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.11 xG and Fulham 2.24 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sheffield Utd beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.59 / defence 1.75 against Fulham attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 17% | Draw 21% | Fulham 62%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 51%, Fulham 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Utd 1.36 PPG, Fulham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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