Nottingham Forest 1-0 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Liverpool travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's home record at The City Ground: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Liverpool have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Liverpool trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 42% versus Liverpool 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 42% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.20 xG and Liverpool 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.774 / defence 1.439 | Liverpool attack 1.122 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.100. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Nottingham Forest games / 48 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 25% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 50%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Liverpool 2.00. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 50% | Liverpool 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 25% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.20 / Liverpool 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.774 / def 1.439 | Liverpool attack 1.122 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Liverpool xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Liverpool.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 25% chance of winning, Liverpool a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Liverpool (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
25%
4.07
26%
3.89
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.98
1.78
Liverpool xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
4%
24.01
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.78 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 22W 12D 14L from 48 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 4L across 48 games — 2.25 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 13W 4D 6L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Liverpool's away record stands at 13W 6D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.42 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Liverpool in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 32W 12D 4L in their last 48 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.87 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Liverpool in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Liverpool won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
4
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 3, Liverpool have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 44%, Liverpool 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Nottingham Forest and 70% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Liverpool in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 52% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 70% of Liverpool's.
Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Liverpool 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Liverpool 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.20 xG and Liverpool 1.78 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Liverpool landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.77 / defence 1.44 against Liverpool attack 1.12 / defence 0.97, drawn from 11/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 25% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 50%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 42%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Liverpool's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.62. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.