Nottingham Forest 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nottingham Forest face Everton.

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Analysis

Everton make the trip to The City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Nottingham Forest (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Nottingham Forest at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Everton have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Everton have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Nottingham Forest, 1.40 for Everton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) — Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Everton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Nottingham Forest 2–2 Everton — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Everton — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 53% versus Everton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 47% | Everton 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.55 xG and Everton 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.964 / defence 1.063 | Everton attack 1.066 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.394. Data: built from Nottingham Forest's last 51 games and Everton's last 51.

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 38% | Draw 24% | Everton 39%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.66 | Draw 4.22 | Everton 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nottingham Forest's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nottingham Forest 70% (last 10 home games) | Everton 60% (last 10 away games).

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