Newcastle 3-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newcastle and West Ham meet at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Newcastle at St. James' Park this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
West Ham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Premier League this season, West Ham have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Newcastle, 1.20 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Newcastle 3W, West Ham 3W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 58% versus West Ham 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | West Ham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.99 xG and West Ham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.175 / defence 1.231 | West Ham attack 0.791 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.237. Data: 74 Newcastle games / 74 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 54% | Draw 24% | West Ham 22%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | West Ham 4.55. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newcastle at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 80% | West Ham 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 54% | Draw 24% | West Ham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Newcastle 1.99 / West Ham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.175 / def 1.231 | West Ham attack 0.791 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.21
West Ham xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs West Ham kick off?
Newcastle vs West Ham kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs West Ham?
Newcastle 3 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Newcastle vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs West Ham part of?
Newcastle vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 54% chance of winning, West Ham a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Newcastle and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and West Ham?
Record (9 meetings): Newcastle 3W | Draws 3 | West Ham 3W.
What form are Newcastle and West Ham in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Newcastle's attack at 1.18x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.79x) against Newcastle's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.19
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.20
1.21
West Ham xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
3%
33.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.21 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newcastle come into this having played 74 games, going 33W 13D 28L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.07 PPG from 74 outings (20W 19D 35L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Newcastle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Newcastle's home form reads 21W 4D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.08 points per game from 37 outings (10W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.19 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and West Ham in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 33W 13D 28L in their last 74 games (1.51 PPG), while West Ham have gone 20W 19D 35L in their last 74 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or West Ham away?
Newcastle's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.81 PPG; West Ham away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-5 on 5 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
3
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, West Ham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Newcastle 3-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and West Ham?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 60%, West Ham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Newcastle) and 49% (West Ham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play West Ham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Newcastle's games and 54% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Newcastle's matches and 49% of West Ham's.
Do Newcastle and West Ham tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, West Ham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat West Ham 3-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.99 xG and West Ham 1.21 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.18 / defence 1.23 against West Ham attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 54% | Draw 24% | West Ham 22%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. West Ham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.