Newcastle 1-3 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 82% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Newcastle welcome Nottingham Forest to St. James' Park in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Newcastle — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Newcastle's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Newcastle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nottingham Forest stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Nottingham Forest away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Newcastle carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Newcastle have won 2, Nottingham Forest 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2023, ended Newcastle 2–1 Nottingham Forest — a Newcastle win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 48% versus Nottingham Forest 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 52% | Nottingham Forest 46%). Note also that Nottingham Forest surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Newcastle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.72 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.359 / defence 0.593 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.771 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.304. Newcastle carry an above-average attack rating of 1.359 — their 2.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Nottingham Forest's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Newcastle's projected output up. Nottingham Forest's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Newcastle have a tight defence (rating 0.593), which is pulling Nottingham Forest's projected output down. Data: built from Newcastle's last 56 games and Nottingham Forest's last 56.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 82% | Draw 12% | Nottingham Forest 6%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.22 | Draw 8.06 | Nottingham Forest 17.33. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (82%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newcastle at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Nottingham Forest's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newcastle 30% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 82% | Draw 12% | Nottingham Forest 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Newcastle 2.72 / Nottingham Forest 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.359 / def 0.593 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.771 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Nottingham Forest xG
42%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle 1 - 3 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 82% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 6% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Newcastle's attack at 1.36x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 56 games and Nottingham Forest's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
82%
1.22
12%
8.06
6%
17.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.31
0.60
Nottingham Forest xG
1.22
82%
Home win
8.06
12%
Draw
17.33
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
7%
15.13
Win to Nil
45%
2.22
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.60 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Newcastle come into this having played 56 games, going 28W 16D 12L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 0.93 PPG from 56 outings (12W 16D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Newcastle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Newcastle's home form reads 19W 6D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 0.46 points per game from their last 28 away games (2W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nottingham Forest's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.02 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Newcastle (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 28W 16D 12L in their last 56 games (1.79 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 16D 28L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Newcastle's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.25 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Newcastle's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Newcastle
1
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 6, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newcastle see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 39%, Nottingham Forest 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Newcastle) and 54% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Nottingham Forest matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Newcastle's recent matches and 43% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newcastle and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Newcastle's recent games and 54% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newcastle and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Newcastle's recent matches and 68% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Newcastle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Newcastle 1-3 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.72 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.60 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 0.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.36 / defence 0.59 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 82% | Draw 12% | Nottingham Forest 6%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 82%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 6% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 52%, Nottingham Forest 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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