Newcastle 4-0 Leicester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Newcastle at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Newcastle face Leicester.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Leicester in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Newcastle have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Newcastle's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Newcastle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Leicester (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Leicester's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Leicester and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended Newcastle 0–0 Leicester — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Newcastle — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Leicester — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newcastle 62% and Leicester 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 64% | Leicester 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Newcastle surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Leicester have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Leicester surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Newcastle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.08 xG and Leicester 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.899 / defence 0.967 | Leicester attack 0.852 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.401. Leicester's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Newcastle's projected output up. Data: built from Newcastle's last 53 games and Leicester's last 15.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 57% | Draw 23% | Leicester 19%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.74 | Draw 4.30 | Leicester 5.16. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newcastle 50% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 57% | Draw 23% | Leicester 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Newcastle 2.08 / Leicester 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.899 / def 0.967 | Leicester attack 0.852 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Leicester xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Leicester kick off?
Newcastle vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Leicester?
Newcastle 4 - 0 Leicester.
Where is Newcastle vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Leicester part of?
Newcastle vs Leicester is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 57% chance of winning, Leicester a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Newcastle and Leicester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newcastle vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Newcastle's attack at 0.90x the league average against Leicester's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (0.85x) against Newcastle's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 53 games and Leicester's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.30
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.23
1.15
Leicester xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
2%
41.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.15 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Newcastle's recent record stands at 23W 11D 19L from 53 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Leicester, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 17L across 53 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Newcastle against 1.70 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 15W 6D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Leicester's away record stands at 11W 5D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Newcastle are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.81 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Leicester in 62%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Leicester
Blended
Newcastle (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Newcastle vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Leicester in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 23W 11D 19L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Leicester have gone 27W 9D 17L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Leicester away?
Newcastle's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.96 PPG; Leicester away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Newcastle and Leicester, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Newcastle have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leicester won Leicester 4-0 Newcastle on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Leicester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Newcastle
1
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Leicester?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 4, Leicester have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 April 2025: Leicester 0-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Leicester?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 54%, Leicester 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Newcastle and 65% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Leicester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Newcastle's games and 65% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Newcastle and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Newcastle's matches and 65% of Leicester's.
Do Newcastle and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Newcastle's recent matches and 81% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Leicester 4-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.08 xG and Leicester 1.15 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leicester landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.40, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 57% | Draw 23% | Leicester 19%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 64%, Leicester 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Leicester's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.51 PPG, Leicester 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 16
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →