Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Newcastle face Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle in Premier League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Newcastle's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bournemouth stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 2.00 PPG, Bournemouth 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Bournemouth and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Newcastle 1–1 Bournemouth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 58% versus Bournemouth 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Newcastle 66% | Bournemouth 64%). Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Newcastle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.200 / defence 0.698 | Bournemouth attack 1.195 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.502. Newcastle have a tight defence (rating 0.698), which is pulling Bournemouth's projected output down. Data: built from Newcastle's last 59 games and Bournemouth's last 59.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.02 | Draw 3.74 | Bournemouth 4.22. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Newcastle 30% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Newcastle 1.86 / Bournemouth 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.200 / def 0.698 | Bournemouth attack 1.195 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bournemouth xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Newcastle 1 - 4 Bournemouth.
Where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Bournemouth part of?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 50% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Newcastle and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newcastle vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.20) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 59 games and Bournemouth's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.74
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.11
1.25
Bournemouth xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
27.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.25 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle's recent record stands at 29W 11D 19L from 59 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 21L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.66 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 18W 6D 5L from their last 29 home games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.46 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Newcastle (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 29W 11D 19L in their last 59 games (1.66 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 22W 16D 21L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Bournemouth away?
Newcastle's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.07 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth.
Newcastle's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Newcastle
6
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 48%, Bournemouth 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Newcastle and 76% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Newcastle's games and 69% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Newcastle and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Newcastle's matches and 76% of Bournemouth's.
Do Newcastle and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Newcastle's recent matches and 83% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Newcastle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Newcastle 1-4 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bournemouth outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.20 / defence 0.70 against Bournemouth attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Bournemouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 66%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.66 PPG, Bournemouth 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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