Newcastle 1-0 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Arsenal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newcastle and Arsenal meet at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Newcastle (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newcastle have posted 6W 3D 1L at St. James' Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.
Arsenal's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Arsenal have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Arsenal are 0.60 PPG clear of Newcastle in recent Premier League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Newcastle lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–4 with Arsenal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Arsenal half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 62% versus Arsenal 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 66% | Arsenal 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.11 xG and Arsenal 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.936 / defence 0.820 | Arsenal attack 1.030 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.439. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Newcastle games / 47 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 32% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 37%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Arsenal 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 60% | Arsenal 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 32% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Newcastle 1.11 / Arsenal 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.936 / def 0.820 | Arsenal attack 1.030 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Arsenal xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Arsenal kick off?
Newcastle vs Arsenal kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Newcastle 1 - 0 Arsenal.
Where is Newcastle vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Arsenal part of?
Newcastle vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 32% chance of winning, Arsenal a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Newcastle and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Arsenal?
Record (6 meetings): Newcastle 2W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 3W.
What form are Newcastle and Arsenal in?
Newcastle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Newcastle's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.03x) against Newcastle's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
32%
3.12
31%
3.23
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.33
1.22
Arsenal xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.22 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Newcastle come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 9D 17L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arsenal sit at 2.28 PPG from 47 outings (33W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Newcastle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Newcastle's home form reads 14W 5D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arsenal have taken 2.13 points per game from 23 outings (15W 4D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Newcastle are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.30 scored and 0.83 conceded. Newcastle's scoring rate against Arsenal's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Arsenal in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 21W 9D 17L in their last 47 games (1.53 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 33W 8D 6L in their last 47 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.04 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Arsenal in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Arsenal have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 4-1 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Newcastle
1
Draws
6
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 3, Arsenal have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 56%, Arsenal 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Newcastle) and 48% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Arsenal in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Newcastle's recent matches and 30% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Newcastle's recent games and 48% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Arsenal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Arsenal 1-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.11 xG and Arsenal 1.22 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Arsenal landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Arsenal attack 1.03 / defence 0.78, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 32% | Draw 31% | Arsenal 37%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 66%, Arsenal 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Newcastle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.