Ipswich 1-4 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 74% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ipswich face Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ipswich and Tottenham meet at Portman Road in Premier League (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Ipswich have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Tottenham (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Ipswich, 1.00 for Tottenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Ipswich, 0 for Tottenham and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Ipswich 2–1 Tottenham — a Ipswich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ipswich — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Tottenham — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 62% and Tottenham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ipswich 57% | Tottenham 75%). Note also that Tottenham surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Ipswich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 0.70 xG and Tottenham 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.556 / defence 1.385 | Tottenham attack 1.126 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.526. Ipswich's attack rating of 0.556 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Ipswich's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tottenham's projected output up. Data: built from Ipswich's last 25 games and Tottenham's last 63.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 9% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 74%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 11.55 | Draw 5.88 | Tottenham 1.35. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (74%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 74% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 40% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 9% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Ipswich 0.70 / Tottenham 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.556 / def 1.385 | Tottenham attack 1.126 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Tottenham xG
46%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Tottenham kick off?
Ipswich vs Tottenham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Tottenham?
Ipswich 1 - 4 Tottenham.
Where is Ipswich vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Tottenham part of?
Ipswich vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 9% chance of winning, Tottenham a 74% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ipswich and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Ipswich vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ipswich's attack rating (0.56) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (1.13x) against Ipswich's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 25 games and Tottenham's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
9%
11.55
17%
5.88
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
0 – 3
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.08
2.38
Tottenham xG
11.55
9%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
9%
10.80
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
1%
124.77
37%
2.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Ipswich and 2.38 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Tottenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich's recent record stands at 24W 20D 19L from 63 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 25L across 63 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Ipswich against 1.52 for Tottenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 13W 10D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 11W 7D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.95 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Tottenham in 67%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
Ipswich (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Ipswich vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 24W 20D 19L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 29W 9D 25L in their last 63 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Tottenham away?
Ipswich's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.58 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Ipswich and Tottenham, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ipswich
0
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Tottenham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 1, Tottenham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Ipswich 1-4 Tottenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 64%, Tottenham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Ipswich and 68% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ipswich's games and 52% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ipswich and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ipswich's matches and 68% of Tottenham's.
Do Ipswich and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Ipswich's recent matches and 90% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Ipswich 1-4 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 0.70 xG and Tottenham 2.38 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Tottenham outscored their 2.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.56 / defence 1.39 against Tottenham attack 1.13 / defence 0.83, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 9% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 74%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 57%, Tottenham 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.46 PPG, Tottenham 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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