Ipswich vs Fulham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ipswich at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Ipswich welcome Fulham to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ipswich have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ipswich's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Portman Road this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for Fulham and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fulham in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 55% versus Fulham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 55% | Fulham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.40 xG and Fulham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.938 / defence 1.094 | Fulham attack 0.786 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 2 Ipswich games / 40 Fulham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 3.57. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 60% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 45% | Draw 27% | Fulham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ipswich 1.40 / Fulham 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.938 / def 1.094 | Fulham attack 0.786 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Fulham kick off?
Ipswich vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Portman Road.
Where is Ipswich vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Fulham part of?
Ipswich vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 45% chance of winning, Fulham a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ipswich and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 2 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Fulham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.73
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.44
1.04
Fulham xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.04 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ipswich come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 11D 8L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ipswich, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.30 PPG from 40 outings (15W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Fulham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ipswich's home form reads 12W 6D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ipswich are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Fulham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 21W 11D 8L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Fulham away?
Ipswich's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.21 PPG; Fulham away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fulham in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ipswich
2
Draws
0
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 0, Fulham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 5 January 2025, when Fulham 2-2 Ipswich.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 47%, Fulham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ipswich) and 47% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fulham in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ipswich's recent matches and 47% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ipswich's recent games and 47% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Fulham tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fulham in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.