Fulham 0-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fulham have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
West Ham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
West Ham away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Fulham against 1.20 for West Ham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fulham 0W, West Ham 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus West Ham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | West Ham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.37 xG and West Ham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.812 / defence 1.182 | West Ham attack 0.747 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.142. Data: 28 Fulham games / 66 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 27% | West Ham 28%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | West Ham 3.57. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | West Ham 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 27% | West Ham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Fulham 1.37 / West Ham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.812 / def 1.182 | West Ham attack 0.747 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Fulham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.01
West Ham xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs West Ham kick off?
Fulham vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs West Ham?
Fulham 0 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Fulham vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs West Ham part of?
Fulham vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 45% chance of winning, West Ham a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fulham and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and West Ham?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 0 | West Ham 1W.
What form are Fulham and West Ham in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fulham's attack rating (0.81) and West Ham's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.75x) against Fulham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.67
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
West Ham xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Fulham and 1.01 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 66 games, going 33W 14D 19L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.26 PPG from 66 outings (23W 14D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 17W 7D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 0.94 points per game from 32 outings (8W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.30 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and West Ham in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 33W 14D 19L in their last 66 games (1.71 PPG), while West Ham have gone 23W 14D 29L in their last 66 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or West Ham away?
Fulham's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.81 PPG; West Ham away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Fulham or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, West Ham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 5-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
1
Draws
4
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and West Ham?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, West Ham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Fulham 0-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 56%, West Ham 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Fulham) and 44% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; West Ham in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fulham's recent matches and 44% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Fulham's recent games and 44% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.37 xG and West Ham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.81 / defence 1.18 against West Ham attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 45% | Draw 27% | West Ham 28%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, West Ham 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.