Fulham 1-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 52%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Sunderland meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sunderland are 0.60 PPG clear of Fulham in recent Premier League fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 67% versus Sunderland 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 55% | Sunderland 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.42 xG and Sunderland 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.988 / defence 0.880 | Sunderland attack 0.754 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.145. Data: 49 Fulham games / 11 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 20%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 5.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Fulham 1.42 / Sunderland 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.988 / def 0.880 | Sunderland attack 0.754 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Fulham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sunderland xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Sunderland kick off?
Fulham vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Sunderland?
Fulham 1 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Fulham vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Sunderland part of?
Fulham vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 52% chance of winning, Sunderland a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fulham and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Sunderland in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.75x) against Fulham's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.58
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.18
0.76
Sunderland xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fulham and 0.76 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham's recent record stands at 18W 11D 20L from 49 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 12L across 49 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Fulham against 1.57 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.14 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 20W 17D 12L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Sunderland away?
Fulham's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.50 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Fulham or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Sunderland?
From 3 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Sunderland have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Sunderland 1-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Sunderland?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 67%, Sunderland 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fulham) and 42% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%; Sunderland in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Fulham's recent matches and 42% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fulham's recent games and 42% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Sunderland tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Sunderland 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Sunderland 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.42 xG and Sunderland 0.76 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against Sunderland attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 52% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 20%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Sunderland's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.33 PPG, Sunderland 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.