Fulham 1-4 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 6W 1D 3L at Craven Cottage — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Newcastle (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Fulham, 1.40 for Newcastle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 56% versus Newcastle 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 58% | Newcastle 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.59 xG and Newcastle 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.117 / defence 1.180 | Newcastle attack 0.898 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.216. Data: 7 Fulham games / 45 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 43% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 30%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Newcastle 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Newcastle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 43% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Fulham 1.59 / Newcastle 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.117 / def 1.180 | Newcastle attack 0.898 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Fulham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Newcastle xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Newcastle kick off?
Fulham vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Fulham 1 - 4 Newcastle.
Where is Fulham vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Newcastle part of?
Fulham vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 43% chance of winning, Newcastle a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Newcastle (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.12x the league average against Newcastle's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.90x) against Fulham's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.69
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.88
1.29
Newcastle xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Fulham and 1.29 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fulham come into this having played 45 games, going 25W 10D 10L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (14W 15D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Newcastle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fulham's home form reads 14W 4D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.16 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 14W 15D 16L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Newcastle away?
Fulham's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.09 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Fulham or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Newcastle in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
0
Draws
5
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Newcastle?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Newcastle have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 59%, Newcastle 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fulham) and 46% (Newcastle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Newcastle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Newcastle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fulham's games and 54% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 46% of Newcastle's.
Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Fulham 1-4 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.59 xG and Newcastle 1.29 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.12 / defence 1.18 against Newcastle attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 43% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 30%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 58%, Newcastle 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Newcastle's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Newcastle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.