Fulham 1-1 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Manchester United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Fulham welcome Manchester United to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Manchester United have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Manchester United have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Manchester United away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Manchester United have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Fulham.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Manchester United winning.
It is worth noting that Manchester United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Manchester United in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 72% versus Manchester United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Manchester United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.50 xG and Manchester United 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.975 / defence 1.101 | Manchester United attack 1.007 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.183. Data: 39 Fulham games / 39 Manchester United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 25% | Manchester United 33%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Manchester United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Manchester United lead the H2H ledger, but Fulham carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Manchester United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 42% | Draw 25% | Manchester United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Fulham 1.50 / Manchester United 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.975 / def 1.101 | Manchester United attack 1.007 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Fulham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Manchester United xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Manchester United kick off?
Fulham vs Manchester United kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Fulham 1 - 1 Manchester United.
Where is Fulham vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Manchester United part of?
Fulham vs Manchester United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 42% chance of winning, Manchester United a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fulham and Manchester United will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
Record (6 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 0 | Manchester United 5W.
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Manchester United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.97x the league average against Manchester United's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester United's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
42%
2.40
25%
3.98
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Manchester United xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fulham and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fulham and 1.31 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fulham come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 10D 14L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Manchester United sit at 1.08 PPG from 39 outings (11W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Manchester United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.41 PPG, Manchester United on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fulham's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Manchester United have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.13 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Manchester United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 11W 9D 19L in their last 39 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Manchester United away?
Fulham's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.37 PPG; Manchester United away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Manchester United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham's record when hosting Manchester United specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fulham
1
Draws
6
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Manchester United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Manchester United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Manchester United 3-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Manchester United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 74%, Manchester United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Fulham) and 47% (Manchester United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Manchester United in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Manchester United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Fulham's games and 47% of Manchester United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Manchester United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fulham's matches and 47% of Manchester United's.
Do Fulham and Manchester United tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Manchester United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Manchester United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 2, as Fulham and Manchester United drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.50 xG and Manchester United 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Manchester United attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 42% | Draw 25% | Manchester United 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Manchester United 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Manchester United's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.41 PPG, Manchester United 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.