Fulham 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Tuesday 30 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fulham have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.20 PPG versus Everton's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fulham, 0 for Everton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Fulham 1–0 Everton — a Fulham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Everton trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Everton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.88 xG and Everton 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.175 / defence 0.943 | Everton attack 0.929 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.354. Data: built from Fulham's last 59 games and Everton's last 59.
Result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 23% | Everton 24%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.87 | Draw 4.36 | Everton 4.22. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fulham 30% (last 10 home games) | Everton 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 23% | Everton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Fulham 1.88 / Everton 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.175 / def 0.943 | Everton attack 0.929 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Fulham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Everton xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Everton FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Everton kick off?
Fulham vs Everton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 30 January 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Everton?
Fulham 0 - 0 Everton.
Where is Fulham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Everton part of?
Fulham vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 53% chance of winning, Everton a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.18x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 59 games and Everton's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.36
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.07
1.19
Everton xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
4%
27.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Fulham and 1.19 for Everton, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 10D 27L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 16W 15D 28L from 59 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.29 PPG, Everton on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 10D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.98 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Everton
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Everton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 22W 10D 27L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Everton away?
Fulham's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.62 PPG; Everton away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Everton have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Fulham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 2, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Everton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fulham) and 48% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games; Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 48% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 48% of Everton's.
Do Fulham and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Fulham's recent matches and 72% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fulham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 22, as Fulham and Everton drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.88 xG and Everton 1.19 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Everton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Everton attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 53% | Draw 23% | Everton 24%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Everton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.29 PPG, Everton 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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