Fulham 2-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brighton at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Brighton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Brighton at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brighton stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Brighton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brighton have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Brighton's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Brighton in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Brighton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 55% | Brighton 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.28 xG and Brighton 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.088 / defence 1.238 | Brighton attack 1.150 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.227. Brighton's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Fulham games / 42 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 23% | Brighton 48%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Brighton 2.08. Brighton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brighton are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Brighton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 28% | Draw 23% | Brighton 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Fulham 1.28 / Brighton 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.088 / def 1.238 | Brighton attack 1.150 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Brighton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Brighton xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Brighton kick off?
Fulham vs Brighton kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Fulham 2 - 1 Brighton.
Where is Fulham vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Brighton part of?
Fulham vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 28% chance of winning, Brighton a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fulham and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Brighton in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Brighton (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.09x the league average against Brighton's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
28%
3.54
23%
4.26
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.03
1.75
Brighton xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
5%
20.30
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Fulham and 1.75 for Brighton, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 23W 10D 9L from 42 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 11L across 42 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Brighton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brighton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 13W 4D 4L from 21 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 9W 8D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.12 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Brighton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Brighton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 23W 10D 9L in their last 42 games (1.88 PPG), while Brighton have gone 15W 16D 11L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Brighton away?
Fulham's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.05 PPG; Brighton away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Fulham or Brighton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Brighton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fulham
2
Draws
1
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Brighton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 5, Brighton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Brighton?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 57%, Brighton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 38% (Brighton).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Brighton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fulham's games and 57% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Fulham's recent games and 38% of Brighton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Brighton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Brighton 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.28 xG and Brighton 1.75 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.09 / defence 1.24 against Brighton attack 1.15 / defence 0.74, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 28% | Draw 23% | Brighton 48%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 55%, Brighton 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Brighton's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Brighton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.