Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Bournemouth — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Bournemouth have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Fulham's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Bournemouth winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bournemouth have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bournemouth trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 63% and Bournemouth 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Bournemouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.41 xG and Bournemouth 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.014 / defence 0.928 | Bournemouth attack 1.103 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.252. Data: 73 Fulham games / 73 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Bournemouth 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Fulham 1.41 / Bournemouth 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.014 / def 0.928 | Bournemouth attack 1.103 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bournemouth xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 0 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 39% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Record (9 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 4 | Bournemouth 4W.
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.01) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.51
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.69
1.28
Bournemouth xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Fulham and 1.28 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 29W 15D 29L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 27W 27D 19L from 73 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (17W 7D 12L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 12W 14D 10L from 36 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.55 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 29W 15D 29L in their last 73 games (1.40 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 27W 27D 19L in their last 73 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.61 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fulham at 67%, Bournemouth at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Fulham and 75% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fulham's games and 75% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fulham's matches and 75% of Bournemouth's.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.41 xG and Bournemouth 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Bournemouth attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 39% | Draw 28% | Bournemouth 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Bournemouth 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.