Fulham 3-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Thursday 20 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Aston Villa (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fulham, 0.90 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Aston Villa in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 58% versus Aston Villa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Aston Villa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.50 xG and Aston Villa 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.983 / defence 1.515 | Aston Villa attack 0.819 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.125. Data: 10 Fulham games / 48 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Aston Villa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Aston Villa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 39% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Fulham 1.50 / Aston Villa 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.983 / def 1.515 | Aston Villa attack 0.819 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Aston Villa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Fulham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham 3 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Fulham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Aston Villa part of?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 39% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fulham and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Aston Villa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 0.98x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.82x) against Fulham's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.67
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.90
1.40
Aston Villa xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fulham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fulham and 1.40 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 25W 11D 12L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 15W 9D 24L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aston Villa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.96 PPG from 24 outings (14W 5D 5L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 7W 3D 14L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.23 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 25W 11D 12L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 15W 9D 24L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Aston Villa away?
Fulham's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.96 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fulham or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 3-0 on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
0
Draws
6
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Aston Villa have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 62%, Aston Villa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Fulham and 54% for Aston Villa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Aston Villa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fulham's games and 50% of Aston Villa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fulham's matches and 54% of Aston Villa's.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aston Villa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Aston Villa 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.50 xG and Aston Villa 1.40 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aston Villa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 1.51 against Aston Villa attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 39% | Draw 27% | Aston Villa 34%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Aston Villa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aston Villa's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.