Everton 0-1 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Wolves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton and Wolves meet at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Everton (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Wolves's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Wolves have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wolves are 1.40 PPG clear of Everton in recent Premier League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Wolves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wolves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 52% versus Wolves 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 60% | Wolves 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.96 xG and Wolves 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.939 / defence 1.150 | Wolves attack 0.713 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.358. Data: 25 Everton games / 28 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 31% | Draw 30% | Wolves 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Wolves 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Wolves 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 31% | Draw 30% | Wolves 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton 0.96 / Wolves 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.939 / def 1.150 | Wolves attack 0.713 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Wolves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wolves xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Wolves kick off?
Everton vs Wolves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Wolves?
Everton 0 - 1 Wolves.
Where is Everton vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Wolves part of?
Everton vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 31% chance of winning, Wolves a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Wolves?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Everton and Wolves in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Wolves (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Wolves's attack (0.71x) against Everton's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 25/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
31%
3.24
30%
3.32
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Everton xG
Total xG
2.07
1.11
Wolves xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Everton and 1.11 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Everton have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 4D 15L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolves's form line: 13W 4D 8L from 25 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolves are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wolves have gone 6W 2D 4L from 12 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.12 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Wolves in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Wolves in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 6W 4D 15L in their last 25 games (0.88 PPG), while Wolves have gone 13W 4D 8L in their last 25 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Wolves away?
Wolves's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.33 PPG; Wolves away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Everton or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Wolves in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 4-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
5
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Wolves?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Wolves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Everton 1-1 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Wolves?
Wolves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Wolves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Everton) and 25% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Wolves in 42%; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games; Wolves in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 33% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Everton's recent games and 25% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Wolves edge out Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Everton 0-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.96 xG and Wolves 1.11 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Wolves attack 0.71 / defence 0.90, drawn from 25/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 31% | Draw 30% | Wolves 39%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 60%, Wolves 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolves's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolves arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.