Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 55%, yet in-form Nottingham Forest provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Nottingham Forest arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 52% versus Nottingham Forest 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 55% | Nottingham Forest 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.58 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.878 / defence 0.958 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.727 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.190. Data: 40 Everton games / 2 Nottingham Forest games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton 55% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Nottingham Forest 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Everton (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nottingham Forest (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 30% | Nottingham Forest 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 55% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Everton 1.58 / Nottingham Forest 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.878 / def 0.958 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.727 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Everton (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Nottingham Forest xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Everton 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Everton vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Everton vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 55% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Everton and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.88x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.73x) against Everton's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.82
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Everton xG
Total xG
2.41
0.83
Nottingham Forest xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
4%
25.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Everton and 0.83 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Nottingham Forest?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Everton have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 6D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 23W 9D 8L from 40 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nottingham Forest are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (9W 2D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 9W 6D 5L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.60 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 11W 6D 23L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 9D 8L in their last 40 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.45 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Everton or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Everton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Everton
2
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
From 8 meetings on record, Everton have won 5, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Nottingham Forest?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 45%, Nottingham Forest 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for Everton and 25% for Nottingham Forest.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest in 35%; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games; Nottingham Forest in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Everton's recent matches and 45% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Everton's recent games and 25% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 3, as Everton and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.58 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.83 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Everton 55% | Draw 26% | Nottingham Forest 19%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 55%, Nottingham Forest 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.