Everton 1-4 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Premier League appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's away record: 4W 1D 1L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Everton's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Liverpool 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Everton 54% | Liverpool 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.19 xG and Liverpool 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.936 / defence 1.248 | Liverpool attack 1.579 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.300. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.579 — the away xG of 2.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Everton games / 13 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 15% | Draw 18% | Liverpool 66%. Fair-value odds: Everton 6.67 | Draw 5.56 | Liverpool 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.76 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton 50% | Liverpool 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 15% | Draw 18% | Liverpool 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG Everton 1.19 / Liverpool 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.936 / def 1.248 | Liverpool attack 1.579 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Everton xG
Expected Goals
2.56
Liverpool xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off?
Everton vs Liverpool kicked off at 20:15 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton 1 - 4 Liverpool.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Liverpool part of?
Everton vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 15% chance of winning, Liverpool a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Everton and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and Liverpool in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.94x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 2.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
15%
6.51
18%
5.49
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Everton xG
Total xG
3.76
2.56
Liverpool xG
6.51
15%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
8%
12.97
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
1%
84.47
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Everton and 2.56 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Liverpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 3D 6L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 2.17 points per game from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 3.00 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.67 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Everton or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Liverpool in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Liverpool have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Liverpool have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 50%, Liverpool 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Everton and 100% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Liverpool in 67%; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton's recent matches and 33% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Everton's matches and 100% of Liverpool's.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Everton 1-4 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.19 xG and Liverpool 2.56 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool outscored their 2.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.94 / defence 1.25 against Liverpool attack 1.58 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 15% | Draw 18% | Liverpool 66%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 54%, Liverpool 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.