Everton 1-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Burnley at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton have posted 3W 4D 3L at Goodison Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 0.60 PPG versus Burnley's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Everton, 1 for Burnley and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Burnley trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Burnley 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Burnley 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.54 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.773 / defence 0.972 | Burnley attack 0.833 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.519. Everton's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Everton games / 31 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Burnley 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Burnley 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Everton 1.54 / Burnley 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.773 / def 0.972 | Burnley attack 0.833 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Everton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Burnley kick off?
Everton vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Burnley?
Everton 1 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Everton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Burnley part of?
Everton vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, Burnley a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Everton and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Everton and Burnley in?
Everton (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.44
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Everton xG
Total xG
2.77
1.23
Burnley xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Everton and 1.23 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Everton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 16W 20D 32L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 30W 16D 22L from 68 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (9W 7D 17L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 13W 10D 10L from 33 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.53 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 20D 32L in their last 68 games (1.00 PPG), while Burnley have gone 30W 16D 22L in their last 68 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.03 PPG; Burnley away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Everton or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Burnley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Everton
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Burnley?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Burnley 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 58% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 61% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Everton's recent games and 58% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Burnley 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Burnley 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.54 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Burnley landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.77 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 68/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Burnley 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, Burnley 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.