Everton 0-0 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Brentford.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Brentford in Premier League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Everton's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Everton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brentford (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Brentford's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Everton, 1.30 for Brentford — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Everton, 2 for Brentford and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Everton 1–0 Brentford — a Everton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Brentford — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 41% versus Brentford 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Brentford 69%). Note also that Brentford surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Everton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.50 xG and Brentford 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.854 / defence 0.964 | Brentford attack 0.897 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.345. Data: built from Everton's last 49 games and Brentford's last 49.
Result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Brentford 28%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.32 | Draw 3.42 | Brentford 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 30% (last 10 home games) | Brentford 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Brentford 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Everton 1.50 / Brentford 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.854 / def 0.964 | Brentford attack 0.897 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Everton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Brentford xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Brentford FAQs
What time does Everton vs Brentford kick off?
Everton vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Brentford?
Everton 0 - 0 Brentford.
Where is Everton vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Brentford part of?
Everton vs Brentford is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 43% chance of winning, Brentford a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Everton and Brentford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.85) and Brentford's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (0.90x) against Everton's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 49 games and Brentford's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.42
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Everton xG
Total xG
2.66
1.16
Brentford xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
6%
16.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Brentford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Everton and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Everton and 1.16 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 15W 13D 21L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 24L across 49 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Everton against 1.12 for Brentford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 9W 6D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 5W 2D 17L across their last 24 away games, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brentford's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.59 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brentford in 71%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Brentford
Blended
Everton (Home) vs Brentford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Everton vs Brentford Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Brentford in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Brentford have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Brentford away?
Everton's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.38 PPG; Brentford away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Everton or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brentford in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Everton and Brentford, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
4
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Brentford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 3, Brentford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Brentford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 38%, Brentford 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 67% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Brentford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Brentford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Everton's recent matches and 62% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Brentford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 67% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Brentford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Everton's recent matches and 75% of Brentford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 12, as Everton and Brentford drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.50 xG and Brentford 1.16 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Brentford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Brentford attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 43% | Draw 29% | Brentford 28%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Brentford 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brentford's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.18 PPG, Brentford 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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