Everton 1-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Arsenal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Arsenal at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Goodison Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Arsenal away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton at 1.70 PPG versus Arsenal's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Everton have won 2, Arsenal 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Arsenal in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 41% versus Arsenal 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 41% | Arsenal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.07 xG and Arsenal 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.058 / defence 0.885 | Arsenal attack 1.066 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.446. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 68 Everton games / 68 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 29% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 44%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Arsenal 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Arsenal 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 29% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Everton 1.07 / Arsenal 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.058 / def 0.885 | Arsenal attack 1.066 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Arsenal xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Arsenal kick off?
Everton vs Arsenal kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Everton 1 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Everton vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Arsenal part of?
Everton vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 29% chance of winning, Arsenal a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Everton and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
Record (7 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 4W.
What form are Everton and Arsenal in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Arsenal (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
29%
3.40
27%
3.70
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Everton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.36
Arsenal xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Everton and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Everton and 1.36 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 20W 22D 26L from 68 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 45W 15D 8L across 68 games — 2.21 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 12W 11D 11L from 34 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 20W 9D 5L across 34 trips, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.15 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Arsenal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 20W 22D 26L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 45W 15D 8L in their last 68 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.38 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Everton or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Arsenal in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Arsenal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Arsenal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
2
Draws
6
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Arsenal have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 38%, Arsenal 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 41% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Arsenal in 47%; Everton have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Everton's recent matches and 41% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 41% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton and Arsenal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Arsenal finished level at 1-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.07 xG and Arsenal 1.36 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Arsenal attack 1.07 / defence 0.72, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 29% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 44%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 41%, Arsenal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.