Crystal Palace 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Selhurst Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burnley have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.00 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Crystal Palace 0W, Burnley 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Burnley — key trading statistics (23 games, 12 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 56% versus Burnley 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 56% | Burnley 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.36 xG and Burnley 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 1.050 / defence 1.217 | Burnley attack 0.779 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.343. Data: 26 Crystal Palace games / 23 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 26% | Burnley 35%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Burnley 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 70% | Burnley 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 26% | Burnley 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Crystal Palace 1.36 / Burnley 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 1.050 / def 1.217 | Burnley attack 0.779 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Burnley xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Burnley kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Crystal Palace 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Burnley part of?
Crystal Palace vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 39% chance of winning, Burnley a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crystal Palace and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Burnley in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crystal Palace's attack at 1.05x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.78x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 26/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.83
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.64
1.27
Burnley xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.27 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crystal Palace come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 9D 8L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (3W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Crystal Palace against 0.87 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crystal Palace's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (1W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.91 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Burnley in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Burnley have gone 3W 11D 9L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Burnley away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.33 PPG; Burnley away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Burnley in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 3-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Crystal Palace
2
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 3, Burnley have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 67%, Burnley 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Crystal Palace) and 50% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Crystal Palace's games and 50% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Crystal Palace's matches and 50% of Burnley's.
Crystal Palace and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 27, as Crystal Palace and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.36 xG and Burnley 1.27 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Burnley attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 39% | Draw 26% | Burnley 35%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 56%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.17 PPG, Burnley 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.