Chelsea 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chelsea at 42%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chelsea vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chelsea host Fulham at Stamford Bridge in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chelsea have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chelsea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Chelsea are significantly better at Stamford Bridge than their overall form suggests.
Fulham — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Fulham's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Chelsea's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chelsea, 1 for Fulham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chelsea in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 48% versus Fulham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 50% | Fulham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 1.24 xG and Fulham 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 0.914 / defence 0.770 | Fulham attack 1.012 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.187. Chelsea's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Chelsea games / 21 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chelsea 42% | Draw 31% | Fulham 27%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Fulham 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chelsea at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chelsea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chelsea 50% | Fulham 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 42% | Draw 31% | Fulham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Chelsea 1.24 / Fulham 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 0.914 / def 0.770 | Fulham attack 1.012 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chelsea vs Fulham kick off?
Chelsea vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Fulham?
Chelsea 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Chelsea vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs Fulham part of?
Chelsea vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 42% chance of winning, Fulham a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chelsea and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Chelsea vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Chelsea 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Chelsea and Fulham in?
Chelsea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Fulham (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chelsea's attack at 0.91x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Chelsea's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
42%
2.35
31%
3.26
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Chelsea xG
Total xG
2.16
0.93
Fulham xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chelsea and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Chelsea and 0.93 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chelsea come into this having played 58 games, going 29W 16D 13L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Chelsea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.79 PPG from 58 outings (31W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chelsea on 1.78 PPG, Fulham on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chelsea's home form reads 14W 9D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chelsea are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.05 scored and 1.12 conceded. Fulham's attacking output running into Chelsea's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chelsea and Fulham in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Fulham have gone 31W 11D 16L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or Fulham away?
Chelsea's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 1.82 PPG; Fulham away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Chelsea or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fulham in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chelsea's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chelsea
1
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Chelsea have won 4, Fulham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and Fulham?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 57%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chelsea) and 54% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fulham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chelsea play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Chelsea's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chelsea vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chelsea's recent games and 54% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Chelsea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 22, as Chelsea and Fulham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 1.24 xG and Fulham 0.93 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chelsea fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 0.91 / defence 0.77 against Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 42% | Draw 31% | Fulham 27%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 50%, Fulham 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.78 PPG, Fulham 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.