Burnley 2-5 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burnley face Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Tottenham travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley in Premier League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Tottenham's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Burnley 1.70 PPG, Tottenham 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Burnley have won 1, Tottenham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2022, ended Burnley 0–1 Tottenham — a Tottenham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Tottenham in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Tottenham 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Tottenham 58%). Note also that Tottenham surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Burnley recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.10 xG and Tottenham 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.685 / defence 1.442 | Tottenham attack 1.212 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.372. Burnley's attack rating of 0.685 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Tottenham have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 2.40. Burnley's defence rating of 1.442 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tottenham's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 2 games and Tottenham's last 41.
Result probabilities: Burnley 16% | Draw 18% | Tottenham 66%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 6.31 | Draw 5.52 | Tottenham 1.51. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (66%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.10 / 2.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 30% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 16% | Draw 18% | Tottenham 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Burnley 1.10 / Tottenham 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.685 / def 1.442 | Tottenham attack 1.212 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Tottenham xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Tottenham kick off?
Burnley vs Tottenham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Tottenham?
Burnley 2 - 5 Tottenham.
Where is Burnley vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Tottenham part of?
Burnley vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 16% chance of winning, Tottenham a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Burnley and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.69) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 2 games and Tottenham's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
16%
6.31
18%
5.52
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.50
2.40
Tottenham xG
6.31
16%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
9%
11.01
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
1%
69.48
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Burnley and 2.40 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Tottenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Burnley have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 26W 11D 4L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Tottenham's form line: 20W 7D 14L from 41 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tottenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 21 home games (15W 3D 3L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 7W 6D 8L from their last 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.85 scored and 1.59 conceded. Tottenham's attacking output running into Burnley's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 61%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
Burnley (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Burnley vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 26W 11D 4L in their last 41 games (2.17 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 20W 7D 14L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Tottenham away?
Burnley's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 2.29 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Burnley or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Tottenham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Sep 2023, when Tottenham won Burnley 2-5 Tottenham.
Burnley's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Tottenham?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 1, Tottenham have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burnley and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Burnley 2-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 43%, Tottenham 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Burnley and 62% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Tottenham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Burnley's recent matches and 67% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Burnley's matches and 62% of Tottenham's.
Do Burnley and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Burnley's recent matches and 81% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Burnley 2-5 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.10 xG and Tottenham 2.40 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.69 / defence 1.44 against Tottenham attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 2/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 16% | Draw 18% | Tottenham 66%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Tottenham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.63. Form was overturned, with Tottenham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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