Burnley 1-2 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Newcastle make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Newcastle away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Burnley, 1.50 for Newcastle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Newcastle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 46% versus Newcastle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 35% | Newcastle 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.27 xG and Newcastle 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.792 / defence 1.168 | Newcastle attack 0.724 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.333. Burnley's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Newcastle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Burnley games / 37 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 32%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Newcastle 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | Newcastle 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Burnley 1.27 / Newcastle 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.792 / def 1.168 | Newcastle attack 0.724 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Burnley (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Newcastle xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Newcastle kick off?
Burnley vs Newcastle kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Burnley 1 - 2 Newcastle.
Where is Burnley vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Newcastle part of?
Burnley vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 39% chance of winning, Newcastle a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burnley and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Newcastle 1W.
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Newcastle (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.79) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.72x) against Burnley's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.51
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.40
1.13
Newcastle xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Burnley and 1.13 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 37 games, going 7W 14D 16L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.24 PPG from 37 outings (12W 10D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Burnley against 1.24 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.14 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 7W 14D 16L in their last 37 games (0.95 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Newcastle away?
Burnley's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.17 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Newcastle have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Newcastle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Burnley 1-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 39%, Newcastle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 44% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 44% of games; Newcastle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 44% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.27 xG and Newcastle 1.13 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Newcastle attack 0.72 / defence 1.43, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 32%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 35%, Newcastle 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.95 PPG, Newcastle 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.