Burnley 0-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Crystal Palace encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Burnley and Crystal Palace meet at Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Burnley have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Burnley have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Burnley are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Crystal Palace (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Crystal Palace away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Crystal Palace arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for Crystal Palace and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Burnley 1–1 Crystal Palace — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Crystal Palace 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 60% | Crystal Palace 40%). Note also that Crystal Palace surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Burnley recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.14 xG and Crystal Palace 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.733 / defence 1.649 | Crystal Palace attack 0.790 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.376. Burnley's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.79. Burnley's defence rating of 1.649 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crystal Palace's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 10 games and Crystal Palace's last 48.

Result probabilities: Burnley 24% | Draw 23% | Crystal Palace 53%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.15 | Draw 4.31 | Crystal Palace 1.90. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Burnley 40% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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