Burnley 0-2 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brighton at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Brighton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Burnley welcome Brighton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 0W 4D 6L at Turf Moor — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Brighton — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Brighton's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Brighton's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Burnley, 2 for Brighton and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Brighton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brighton in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Brighton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Brighton 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.94 xG and Brighton 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.788 / defence 1.273 | Brighton attack 0.968 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.253. Burnley's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Burnley games / 69 Brighton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brighton 49%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Brighton 2.04. Brighton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Brighton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brighton 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Burnley 0.94 / Brighton 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.788 / def 1.273 | Brighton attack 0.968 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Brighton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Brighton xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Brighton kick off?
Burnley vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Burnley 0 - 2 Brighton.
Where is Burnley vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brighton part of?
Burnley vs Brighton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 21% chance of winning, Brighton a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burnley and Brighton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
Record (5 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 2 | Brighton 2W.
What form are Burnley and Brighton in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Brighton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.79) and Brighton's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
21%
4.75
30%
3.36
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.49
1.54
Brighton xG
4.75
21%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
22.26
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Burnley and 1.54 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 27W 22D 20L from 69 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 27W 23D 19L across 69 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.49 PPG, Brighton on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 13W 13D 8L from 34 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 12W 9D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.55 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 67%.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Brighton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 22D 20L in their last 69 games (1.49 PPG), while Brighton have gone 27W 23D 19L in their last 69 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brighton away?
Burnley's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.53 PPG; Brighton away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brighton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Brighton in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Brighton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Burnley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
2
Draws
3
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brighton?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Brighton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brighton last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Burnley 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 35%, Brighton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Burnley) and 59% (Brighton).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Brighton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Burnley's recent matches and 62% of Brighton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Brighton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Burnley's recent games and 59% of Brighton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Brighton tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Brighton in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brighton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brighton beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.94 xG and Brighton 1.54 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Brighton attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 30% | Brighton 49%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Brighton 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brighton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.49 PPG, Brighton 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brighton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.