Burnley 3-1 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brentford at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Brentford travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 0W 4D 5L from 9 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.44 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Premier League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brentford stand at 3W 3D 3L from 9 Premier League matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Brentford have posted 2W 2D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.33 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brentford are 0.89 PPG ahead (1.33 vs 0.44), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Brentford in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 56% versus Brentford 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 44% | Brentford 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.65 xG and Brentford 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.646 / defence 1.130 | Brentford attack 0.871 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.371. Burnley's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Burnley games / 9 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 28% | Brentford 54%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Brentford 1.85. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brentford are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brentford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 50% | Brentford 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 28% | Brentford 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Burnley 0.65 / Brentford 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.646 / def 1.130 | Brentford attack 0.871 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Brentford (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Brentford xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Brentford kick off?
Burnley vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Burnley 3 - 1 Brentford.
Where is Burnley vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Brentford part of?
Burnley vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 18% chance of winning, Brentford a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brentford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Burnley and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Brentford in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Brentford (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.65. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brentford Win
18%
5.56
28%
3.54
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.00
1.35
Brentford xG
5.56
18%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
5%
21.43
28%
3.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 18.3 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Burnley and 1.35 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.44 PPG on a 0W 4D 5L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brentford are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.33 PPG overall record — Brentford travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brentford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Brentford in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Brentford have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Brentford away?
Brentford's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.50 PPG; Brentford away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Burnley or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Brentford in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Brentford won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
4
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Brentford?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Brentford have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Burnley 3-4 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Brentford 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Burnley and 25% for Brentford.
On the defensive side: Brentford in 50%; Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Burnley's recent games and 25% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brentford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Brentford 3-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.65 xG and Brentford 1.35 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.65 / defence 1.13 against Brentford attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 18% | Draw 28% | Brentford 54%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 44%, Brentford 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brentford arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.