Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Bournemouth at Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Burnley's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Burnley have won 0, Bournemouth 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Burnley 1–2 Bournemouth — a Bournemouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Bournemouth 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 60% | Bournemouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.31 xG and Bournemouth 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.691 / defence 1.405 | Bournemouth attack 1.044 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.549. Burnley's attack rating of 0.691 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Burnley's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 26 games and Bournemouth's last 63.
Result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 59%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.77 | Draw 4.93 | Bournemouth 1.70. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.31 / 2.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 40% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 21% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Burnley 1.31 / Bournemouth 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.691 / def 1.405 | Bournemouth attack 1.044 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Bournemouth xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Bournemouth kick off?
Burnley vs Bournemouth kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Burnley 0 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Burnley vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Bournemouth part of?
Burnley vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 21% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Burnley and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 26 games and Bournemouth's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
21%
4.77
20%
4.93
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.58
2.27
Bournemouth xG
4.77
21%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
10%
9.70
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
2%
46.27
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Burnley and 2.27 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 29W 13D 21L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 18W 13D 32L from 63 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Burnley are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bournemouth.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.66 PPG from their last 32 home games (16W 5D 11L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 9W 5D 18L from their last 32 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.11 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 13D 21L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 18W 13D 32L in their last 63 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Bournemouth away?
Burnley's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.66 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Burnley or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Burnley's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Bournemouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, Bournemouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 44%, Bournemouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Burnley and 62% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bournemouth in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Bournemouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Burnley's matches and 62% of Bournemouth's.
Do Burnley and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Burnley's recent matches and 78% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Burnley 0-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.31 xG and Bournemouth 2.27 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.69 / defence 1.41 against Bournemouth attack 1.04 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 21% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 59%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 60%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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