Burnley 1-3 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aston Villa make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Aston Villa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Burnley, 1.30 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Burnley have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Aston Villa in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Aston Villa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 33% | Aston Villa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.90 xG and Aston Villa 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.795 / defence 1.067 | Aston Villa attack 0.758 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.304. Burnley's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Burnley games / 33 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 30% | Draw 31% | Aston Villa 39%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Aston Villa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 20% | Aston Villa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 30% | Draw 31% | Aston Villa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Burnley 0.90 / Aston Villa 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.795 / def 1.067 | Aston Villa attack 0.758 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Aston Villa xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Aston Villa kick off?
Burnley vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Burnley 1 - 3 Aston Villa.
Where is Burnley vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Aston Villa part of?
Burnley vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 30% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burnley and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Aston Villa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Aston Villa in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.80) and Aston Villa's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.76x) against Burnley's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.21
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.95
1.05
Aston Villa xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Burnley and 1.05 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 13D 13L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 12W 4D 17L from 33 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Burnley against 1.21 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 6W 1D 9L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 7W 13D 13L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 12W 4D 17L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Aston Villa away?
Burnley's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.31 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Burnley or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Aston Villa?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Aston Villa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Burnley) and 38% (Aston Villa) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Burnley) and 50% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Aston Villa in 38%; Burnley have failed to score in 50% of games; Aston Villa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Burnley's recent matches and 38% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Burnley's recent games and 50% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Burnley 1-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.90 xG and Aston Villa 1.05 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Aston Villa attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 30% | Draw 31% | Aston Villa 39%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 33%, Aston Villa 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.03 PPG, Aston Villa 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.