Brentford 2-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brentford vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brentford host Burnley at Brentford Community Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brentford — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brentford have posted 3W 1D 6L at Brentford Community Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brentford at 0.70 PPG versus Burnley's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Brentford, 1 for Burnley and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Brentford in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Burnley in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 58% versus Burnley 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 58% | Burnley 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 0.94 xG and Burnley 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.730 / defence 1.195 | Burnley attack 0.760 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.362. Brentford's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Brentford games / 26 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 28% | Draw 29% | Burnley 43%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Brentford 60% | Burnley 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Brentford Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 28% | Draw 29% | Burnley 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Brentford 0.94 / Burnley 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.730 / def 1.195 | Burnley attack 0.760 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Burnley (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Burnley xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Burnley kick off?
Brentford vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Brentford Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Burnley?
Brentford 2 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Brentford vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Brentford Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Burnley part of?
Brentford vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 28% chance of winning, Burnley a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Brentford and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Brentford 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Brentford and Burnley in?
Brentford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brentford's attack rating (0.73) and Burnley's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
28%
3.58
29%
3.46
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Brentford xG
Total xG
2.17
1.24
Burnley xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Brentford and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Brentford and 1.24 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brentford's recent record stands at 6W 5D 15L from 26 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 3W 12D 11L across 26 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brentford on 0.88 PPG, Burnley on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brentford have managed 3W 2D 8L from 13 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 1W 6D 6L across 13 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.85 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Burnley in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Burnley have gone 3W 12D 11L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Burnley away?
Brentford's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 0.85 PPG; Burnley away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brentford and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brentford go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Brentford won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brentford's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Brentford
0
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Brentford have won 4, Burnley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Burnley 3-4 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Burnley?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brentford 54%, Burnley 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Brentford) and 46% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Brentford have failed to score in 38% of games; Burnley in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Brentford's recent matches and 54% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brentford vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Brentford's recent games and 46% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Brentford cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brentford beat Burnley 2-0 at Brentford Community Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 0.94 xG and Burnley 1.24 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brentford beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against Burnley attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 28% | Draw 29% | Burnley 43%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Brentford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 58%, Burnley 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brentford 0.88 PPG, Burnley 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.