Bournemouth 2-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees West Ham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium.
West Ham — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Bournemouth have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for West Ham and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
West Ham trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 59% and West Ham 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 57% | West Ham 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.53 xG and West Ham 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.966 / defence 0.789 | West Ham attack 0.971 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.145. Bournemouth's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Bournemouth games / 49 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 52% | Draw 27% | West Ham 21%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | West Ham 4.76. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
West Ham lead the H2H ledger, but Bournemouth carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 40% | West Ham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 52% | Draw 27% | West Ham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Bournemouth 1.53 / West Ham 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.966 / def 0.789 | West Ham attack 0.971 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.88
West Ham xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs West Ham kick off?
Bournemouth vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Bournemouth 2 - 2 West Ham.
Where is Bournemouth vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs West Ham part of?
Bournemouth vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 52% chance of winning, West Ham a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bournemouth and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and West Ham?
Record (6 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 4 | West Ham 2W.
What form are Bournemouth and West Ham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. West Ham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.76
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.40
0.88
West Ham xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
21.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.88 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 20W 14D 15L from 49 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 24L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over West Ham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 12W 5D 7L from 24 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Ham's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.20 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and West Ham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 20W 14D 15L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while West Ham have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or West Ham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.71 PPG; West Ham away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bournemouth and West Ham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 6 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
6
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and West Ham?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 0, West Ham have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 42%, West Ham 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bournemouth) and 46% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 58% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bournemouth's recent games and 46% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and West Ham tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, West Ham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and West Ham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and West Ham finished level at 2-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.53 xG and West Ham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. West Ham outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 0.79 against West Ham attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 52% | Draw 27% | West Ham 21%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, West Ham 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.