Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vitality Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Nottingham Forest arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bournemouth have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Nottingham Forest in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bournemouth have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Nottingham Forest managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Bournemouth winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bournemouth and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 42% versus Nottingham Forest 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 51% | Nottingham Forest 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.46 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.772 / defence 1.097 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.552 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.236. Bournemouth's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nottingham Forest bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Bournemouth games / 19 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 54% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 19%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Nottingham Forest 5.26. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Bournemouth dominate the H2H record, yet Nottingham Forest are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nottingham Forest (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 20% | Nottingham Forest 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 54% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Bournemouth 1.46 / Nottingham Forest 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.772 / def 1.097 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.552 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Nottingham Forest xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 54% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Record (3 meetings): Bournemouth 3W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.55x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.60
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.21
0.75
Nottingham Forest xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.75 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 29W 17D 19L from 65 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 19L across 65 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.63 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 16W 9D 7L from 32 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 13W 9D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.37 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Nottingham Forest in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 29W 17D 19L in their last 65 games (1.60 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 30W 16D 19L in their last 65 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.78 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 5-0 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bournemouth
4
Draws
0
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 6, Nottingham Forest have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 47%, Nottingham Forest 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bournemouth) and 34% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 34%; Nottingham Forest in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 38% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bournemouth's recent games and 34% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.46 xG and Nottingham Forest 0.75 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.55 / defence 1.32, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 54% | Draw 28% | Nottingham Forest 19%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 51%, Nottingham Forest 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.60 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.