Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bournemouth (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bournemouth face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vitality Stadium this season.
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bournemouth's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Nottingham Forest's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bournemouth have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Nottingham Forest managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Bournemouth winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bournemouth and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 44% versus Nottingham Forest 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Nottingham Forest 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.69 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / defence 1.114 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.937 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.443. Data: 59 Bournemouth games / 60 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 34%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Nottingham Forest 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 40% | Nottingham Forest 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 42% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Bournemouth 1.69 / Nottingham Forest 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.854 / def 1.114 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.937 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Nottingham Forest xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 42% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Record (5 meetings): Bournemouth 4W | Draws 1 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.94x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.10
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.20
1.51
Nottingham Forest xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
6%
15.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.51 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 18W 11D 30L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 29L across 59 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Bournemouth against 0.98 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 9W 7D 13L from 29 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 3W 7D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nottingham Forest's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.10 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 18W 11D 30L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 14W 16D 29L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.17 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 5-0 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bournemouth
4
Draws
0
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 6, Nottingham Forest have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 41%, Nottingham Forest 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bournemouth) and 59% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 41% of games; Nottingham Forest in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 48% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Bournemouth's matches and 59% of Nottingham Forest's.
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.69 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.51 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 42% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 34%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.10 PPG, Nottingham Forest 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.