Bournemouth 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Ipswich meet at Vitality Stadium in Premier League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Bournemouth's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ipswich have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ipswich's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Bournemouth's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Ipswich's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Ipswich and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Bournemouth 2–1 Ipswich — a Bournemouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Ipswich — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 61% and Ipswich 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 66% | Ipswich 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Ipswich have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.63 xG and Ipswich 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.924 / defence 0.776 | Ipswich attack 0.810 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.463. Ipswich's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Bournemouth have a tight defence (rating 0.776), which is pulling Ipswich's projected output down. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 67 games and Ipswich's last 29.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 54% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 21%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.85 | Draw 4.05 | Ipswich 4.73. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Ipswich | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 54% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Bournemouth 1.63 / Ipswich 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.924 / def 0.776 | Ipswich attack 0.810 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Ipswich xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Ipswich kick off?
Bournemouth vs Ipswich kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Ipswich?
Bournemouth 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Bournemouth vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Ipswich part of?
Bournemouth vs Ipswich is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 54% chance of winning, Ipswich a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bournemouth and Ipswich will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Bournemouth vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (0.81x) against Bournemouth's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 67 games and Ipswich's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.05
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.55
0.92
Ipswich xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
24.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.92 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bournemouth come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 17D 25L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Ipswich sit at 1.37 PPG from 67 outings (24W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.37 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bournemouth's home form reads 13W 9D 11L across their last 33 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Ipswich have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 10D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.54 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Ipswich in 63%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
Bournemouth (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Bournemouth vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 25W 17D 25L in their last 67 games (1.37 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 24W 20D 23L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Ipswich away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.45 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Bournemouth and Ipswich, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
0
Draws
1
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Ipswich?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 2, Ipswich have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Ipswich?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 48%, Ipswich 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bournemouth) and 54% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Ipswich matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 61% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bournemouth's recent games and 54% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 76% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ipswich defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Bournemouth 1-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.63 xG and Ipswich 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.92 / defence 0.78 against Ipswich attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 54% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 21%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ipswich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, Ipswich 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.37 PPG, Ipswich 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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