Bournemouth 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Fulham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Monday 14 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bournemouth stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fulham — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bournemouth, 1 for Fulham and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2024, ended Bournemouth 2–2 Fulham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fulham in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and Fulham 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 67% | Fulham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Fulham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.871 / defence 0.862 | Fulham attack 1.051 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.449. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 69 games and Fulham's last 69.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.92 | Draw 3.73 | Fulham 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 32 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Bournemouth 1.22 / Fulham 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.871 / def 0.862 | Fulham attack 1.051 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Fulham xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Fulham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 14 April 2025 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Bournemouth 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Fulham part of?
Bournemouth vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 34% chance of winning, Fulham a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bournemouth and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (0.87) and Fulham's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 69 games and Fulham's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.73
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.53
1.31
Fulham xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.31 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth come into this having played 69 games, going 25W 18D 26L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.38 PPG from 69 outings (26W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.35 PPG, Fulham on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bournemouth's home form reads 13W 9D 12L across their last 34 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 34 away games (10W 10D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.48 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Bournemouth (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Fulham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 25W 18D 26L in their last 69 games (1.35 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 17D 26L in their last 69 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Fulham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.41 PPG; Fulham away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bournemouth have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Fulham.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bournemouth
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Fulham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 50%, Fulham 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bournemouth) and 59% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bournemouth's games and 65% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bournemouth and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bournemouth's matches and 59% of Fulham's.
Do Bournemouth and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 65% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Fulham 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.22 xG and Fulham 1.31 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 34% | Draw 27% | Fulham 39%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 67%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.35 PPG, Fulham 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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