Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Aston Villa travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Vitality Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aston Villa — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aston Villa are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bournemouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Aston Villa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Aston Villa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Bournemouth's 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Aston Villa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aston Villa have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Aston Villa trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 63% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 58% | Aston Villa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.52 xG and Aston Villa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.094 / defence 1.050 | Aston Villa attack 1.137 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Data: 62 Bournemouth games / 62 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Aston Villa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aston Villa (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Aston Villa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Bournemouth 1.52 / Aston Villa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.094 / def 1.050 | Aston Villa attack 1.137 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Aston Villa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kick off?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Aston Villa.
Where is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa part of?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 36% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bournemouth and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Record (7 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 2 | Aston Villa 4W.
What form are Bournemouth and Aston Villa in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.09) and Aston Villa's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
36%
2.80
30%
3.36
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.02
1.50
Aston Villa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 23W 20D 19L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 33W 13D 16L from 62 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.44 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (14W 8D 9L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 14W 5D 12L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 23W 20D 19L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 33W 13D 16L in their last 62 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Aston Villa away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.61 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
3
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
From 8 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 1, Aston Villa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 48%, Aston Villa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bournemouth) and 61% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bournemouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 52% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bournemouth's recent games and 61% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Aston Villa finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.52 xG and Aston Villa 1.50 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Aston Villa attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 36% | Draw 30% | Aston Villa 35%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 58%, Aston Villa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.44 PPG, Aston Villa 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.