Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arsenal's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Arsenal's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Arsenal 0W, Sunderland 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Arsenal half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 53% versus Sunderland 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 47% | Sunderland 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.06 xG and Sunderland 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.253 / defence 0.817 | Sunderland attack 0.590 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Arsenal games / 24 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 69% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 8%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.45 | Draw 4.35 | Sunderland 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (69%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal 60% | Sunderland 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 69% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 42% | xG Arsenal 2.06 / Sunderland 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.253 / def 0.817 | Sunderland attack 0.590 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Sunderland xG
42%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Sunderland kick off?
Arsenal vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Arsenal 3 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Arsenal vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Sunderland part of?
Arsenal vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 69% chance of winning, Sunderland a 8% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Arsenal and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Arsenal 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Arsenal and Sunderland in?
Arsenal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.25) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.59x) against Arsenal's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
69%
1.44
23%
4.34
8%
13.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.67
0.60
Sunderland xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
13.28
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
104.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.60 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Arsenal have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 36W 19D 7L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland's form line: 24W 22D 16L from 62 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sunderland.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.19 PPG from 31 outings (20W 8D 3L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 9W 10D 12L from 31 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arsenal are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.11 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 36W 19D 7L in their last 62 games (2.05 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 24W 22D 16L in their last 62 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Sunderland away?
Arsenal's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.19 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Arsenal
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 1, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Sunderland?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 55%, Sunderland 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Arsenal) and 42% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sunderland in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Arsenal's recent matches and 42% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Arsenal's recent games and 42% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal and Sunderland tend to score early?
Arsenal have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Sunderland 3-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.06 xG and Sunderland 0.60 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against Sunderland attack 0.59 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 69% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 8%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 47%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sunderland's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.52. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.