Arsenal 0-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Arsenal (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Emirates Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium.
Burnley have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Arsenal. A 1.00 PPG lead over Burnley (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Arsenal, 0 for Burnley and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Arsenal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Arsenal half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 41% versus Burnley 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 59% | Burnley 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.92 xG and Burnley 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.148 / defence 0.894 | Burnley attack 0.655 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.340. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing Arsenal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Arsenal games / 17 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 64% | Draw 21% | Burnley 15%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Burnley 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arsenal at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal 40% | Burnley 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 64% | Draw 21% | Burnley 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 46% | xG Arsenal 1.92 / Burnley 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.148 / def 0.894 | Burnley attack 0.655 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Burnley kick off?
Arsenal vs Burnley kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Burnley?
Arsenal 0 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Arsenal vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Burnley part of?
Arsenal vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 64% chance of winning, Burnley a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Arsenal and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Burnley?
Record (1 meetings): Arsenal 1W | Draws 0 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Arsenal and Burnley in?
Arsenal (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.15) and Burnley's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.66x) against Arsenal's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 20/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.71
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.71
0.79
Burnley xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
46.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.79 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arsenal's recent record stands at 11W 2D 4L from 17 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 1W 8D 8L across 17 games — 0.65 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arsenal have managed 7W 1D 1L from 9 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.94 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Burnley in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 11W 2D 4L in their last 17 games (2.06 PPG), while Burnley have gone 1W 8D 8L in their last 17 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Burnley away?
Arsenal's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.44 PPG; Burnley away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Burnley in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Arsenal have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-5 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Arsenal
1
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 5, Burnley have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Arsenal 1-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Burnley?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 44%, Burnley 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Arsenal) and 56% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Burnley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Arsenal's games and 67% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Arsenal's matches and 56% of Burnley's.
Stalemate at Arsenal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Arsenal and Burnley drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.92 xG and Burnley 0.79 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arsenal fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 1.39, drawn from 20/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 64% | Draw 21% | Burnley 15%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 59%, Burnley 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.