Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arsenal host Bournemouth at Emirates Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Arsenal at Emirates Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bournemouth — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Arsenal are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Arsenal register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bournemouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Arsenal have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Bournemouth have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Arsenal winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Arsenal and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 54% versus Bournemouth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 48% | Bournemouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.01 xG and Bournemouth 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.336 / defence 0.754 | Bournemouth attack 1.016 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.245. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Arsenal games / 69 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 60% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 15%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 60% | Bournemouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 60% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Arsenal 2.01 / Bournemouth 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.336 / def 0.754 | Bournemouth attack 1.016 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bournemouth xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Bournemouth kick off?
Arsenal vs Bournemouth kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
Arsenal 1 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Arsenal vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Bournemouth part of?
Arsenal vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 60% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Arsenal and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Bournemouth?
Record (7 meetings): Arsenal 5W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 2W.
What form are Arsenal and Bournemouth in?
Arsenal (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Arsenal's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Arsenal's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.12
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.97
0.95
Bournemouth xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
48.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.95 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal's recent record stands at 41W 21D 7L from 69 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 24W 26D 19L across 69 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bournemouth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Arsenal have managed 23W 8D 3L from 34 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 14D 10L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arsenal are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.51 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 62%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 41W 21D 7L in their last 69 games (2.09 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 24W 26D 19L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Bournemouth away?
Arsenal's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.26 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal and Bournemouth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Arsenal won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arsenal's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arsenal
0
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 5, Bournemouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Arsenal 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Bournemouth?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 53%, Bournemouth 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Arsenal and 74% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Arsenal's games and 74% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Arsenal's matches and 74% of Bournemouth's.
Do Arsenal and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Arsenal have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Arsenal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Arsenal 1-2 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.01 xG and Bournemouth 0.95 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Arsenal fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bournemouth outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.34 / defence 0.75 against Bournemouth attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 60% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 15%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Bournemouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 48%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.