Wrexham 2-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Wrexham at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wrexham face Stockport County.

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Match Analysis

Wrexham host Stockport County at STōK Cae Ras in League Two (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Wrexham stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Wrexham's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Stockport County — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wrexham at 2.20 PPG versus Stockport County's 2.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Wrexham 0–5 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Wrexham in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Stockport County in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 49% versus Stockport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 51% | Stockport County 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.95 xG and Stockport County 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.443 / defence 0.657 | Stockport County attack 1.371 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.369. Wrexham carry an above-average attack rating of 1.443 — their 1.95 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County have an above-average attack rating of 1.371, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Wrexham have a tight defence (rating 0.657), which is pulling Stockport County's projected output down. Data: built from Wrexham's last 45 games and Stockport County's last 91.

Result probabilities: Wrexham 54% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 24%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.85 | Draw 4.56 | Stockport County 4.18. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.95 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wrexham's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wrexham 20% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 70% (last 10 away games).

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