Walsall 1-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Walsall at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Walsall vs Notts County encounter.

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Analysis

Notts County make the trip to Poundland Bescot Stadium to face Walsall in League Two (matchday 44). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Walsall's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Walsall have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Walsall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Notts County (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Notts County's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Walsall. A 0.90 PPG lead over Notts County (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Walsall's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Walsall's games and 70% of Notts County's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Walsall edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Walsall 2–1 Notts County — a Walsall win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Walsall — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Notts County — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Walsall 67% and Notts County 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Walsall 60% | Notts County 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.94 xG and Notts County 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.074 / defence 0.829 | Notts County attack 1.135 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.290. Notts County's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Walsall's projected output up. Data: built from Walsall's last 88 games and Notts County's last 42.

Result probabilities: Walsall 54% | Draw 22% | Notts County 24%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.85 | Draw 4.53 | Notts County 4.21. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Walsall's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Walsall 70% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 70% (last 10 away games).

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