Tranmere 2-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tranmere at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tranmere vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 32 as Tranmere welcome Crawley Town to Prenton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tranmere stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Tranmere's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prenton Park this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crawley Town away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tranmere 0.60 PPG, Crawley Town 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Tranmere, 3 for Crawley Town and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Tranmere winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tranmere trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Crawley Town trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tranmere 55% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tranmere 49% | Crawley Town 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.36 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.830 / defence 1.347 | Crawley Town attack 0.716 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Tranmere's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 Tranmere games / 31 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tranmere 42% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tranmere at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tranmere offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tranmere 60% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 42% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Tranmere 1.36 / Crawley Town 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.830 / def 1.347 | Crawley Town attack 0.716 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Tranmere (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Crawley Town xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tranmere vs Crawley Town kick off?
Tranmere vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Tranmere 2 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Tranmere vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Crawley Town part of?
Tranmere vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 42% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tranmere the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tranmere and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Tranmere vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
Record (7 meetings): Tranmere 4W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 3W.
What form are Tranmere and Crawley Town in?
Tranmere (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (0.83) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Tranmere's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tranmere Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.74
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.51
1.15
Crawley Town xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.15 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tranmere come into this having played 76 games, going 20W 23D 33L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.91 PPG from 76 outings (17W 18D 41L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tranmere on 1.09 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tranmere's home form reads 11W 14D 13L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.74 points per game from 38 outings (7W 7D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tranmere are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.14 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tranmere and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 20W 23D 33L in their last 76 games (1.09 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 18D 41L in their last 76 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Crawley Town away?
Tranmere's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 1.24 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tranmere and Crawley Town runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tranmere have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Tranmere's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tranmere
0
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Tranmere have won 5, Crawley Town have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Tranmere 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Crawley Town?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tranmere 50%, Crawley Town 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Tranmere) and 63% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Tranmere have failed to score in 32% of games; Crawley Town in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tranmere play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Tranmere's recent matches and 45% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tranmere vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Tranmere's recent games and 63% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Tranmere have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tranmere cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Crawley Town 2-0 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.36 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Crawley Town attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 76/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 42% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 32%, with Tranmere to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 49%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.09 PPG, Crawley Town 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.