Swindon Town 3-1 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swindon Town vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Hartlepool at The County Ground in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Swindon Town have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town's home record at The County Ground: 1W 3D 3L from 7 League Two appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.86 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The County Ground this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hartlepool stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hartlepool's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 6L across 8 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Swindon Town have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Hartlepool in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 69% versus Hartlepool 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 56% | Hartlepool 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.28 xG and Hartlepool 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.818 / defence 1.295 | Hartlepool attack 0.645 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.214. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing Swindon Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Swindon Town games / 17 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 40% | Draw 33% | Hartlepool 27%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Hartlepool 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 57% | Hartlepool 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 40% | Draw 33% | Hartlepool 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Swindon Town 1.28 / Hartlepool 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.818 / def 1.295 | Hartlepool attack 0.645 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Hartlepool xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Hartlepool kick off?
Swindon Town vs Hartlepool kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Hartlepool?
Swindon Town 3 - 1 Hartlepool.
Where is Swindon Town vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Hartlepool part of?
Swindon Town vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 40% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Swindon Town and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Hartlepool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swindon Town and Hartlepool in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Swindon Town's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Hartlepool's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Hartlepool's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.03
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Hartlepool xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.01 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Swindon Town have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 8W 5D 3L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool's form line: 6W 2D 8L from 16 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Swindon Town are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hartlepool.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Swindon Town have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That actually lags their 1.81 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
The Goals Picture
Swindon Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Hartlepool away?
Swindon Town's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 0.86 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Swindon Town or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swindon Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Swindon Town and Hartlepool runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2022, when Swindon Town won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Hartlepool specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Swindon Town
0
Draws
1
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 3, Hartlepool have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Hartlepool 2-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Hartlepool?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 57%, Hartlepool 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Swindon Town) and 29% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Swindon Town have failed to score in 29% of games; Hartlepool in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 14% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swindon Town vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Swindon Town's recent games and 29% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Hartlepool 3-1 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.28 xG and Hartlepool 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Hartlepool attack 0.65 / defence 1.49, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 40% | Draw 33% | Hartlepool 27%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 56%, Hartlepool 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hartlepool's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Hartlepool (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.